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©The
Malaysian Insider (Used by permission)
JULY 18 — His smile comes easily enough, but there is a concerned man behind
that cheery exterior. Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi knows that
the next few months could have far-reaching consequences on the next general
election, scheduled for 2013.
If the softening economy is not managed well and if the sodomy investigation
against opposition icon Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim becomes a farce, or at least in
the eyes of many Malaysians it disintegrates into nothing more than a political
sideshow, Umno could end up being punished by Malay voters at the next polls.
And this could spell the end of the Barisan Nasional's grip on power.
Consider the facts: Abdullah and BN managed to win Election 2008 on the strength
of the Malay vote. Despite sabotage and wrong choice of candidates, Umno
delivered big on March 8 because the rural support from 2004 was largely intact
and the desertion of the urban Malay voters was insignificant. In contrast, the
MCA, Gerakan, MIC and PPP suffered major reverses because the usual bank of
Chinese and Indians voters bolted to the Opposition.
There is little to suggest that there is widespread remorse bias among
non-Malays for voting for Pakatan Rakyat. If anything, the latest approval
rating of the Prime Minister shows that his support is much stronger in the
Malay community than it is with non-Malays.
Also, preliminary findings of a survey on political developments in Malaysia
paint a stark picture for BN. It suggests that the relationship between the
ruling coalition and the non-Malay voter is severely frayed, and can only be
repaired if serious reforms are undertaken and steps taken to ensure more
equality among Malaysians of all races.
In short, until and unless serious change is done by the Umno-led coalition, the
Indians and Chinese are not going to return in droves to BN in 2013.
Now consider what happened in Election 1999. A year after Anwar was sacked,
beaten up and jailed for abuse of power and sodomy there was a major split in
the Malay community. Many Malays were upset at the manner the former deputy
prime minister was treated and humiliated. The result: they voted for Parti
Islam SeMalaysia (PAS), giving the Islamic party 27 parliamentary seats and a
place at the main table of Malaysian politics.
Then, Indian and Chinese voters were also troubled by the Anwar episode but they
were more spooked by the concept of the green tide of PAS and the Islamic state,
gave overwhelming support to BN. Today, the fear of PAS has gone, replaced by
the belief that the greater impediment to Indians and Chinese enjoying
unfettered religious space and more freedom in this country is a proud Umno,
rather than the ulama of PAS.
So what Abdullah and the BN have today is Malay support. The survey on political
developments showed that many Malays are supporting the ruling coalition based
on their track record of managing the economy well. But this sentiment is going
to be challenged with inflation expected to hit 6 per cent, and the economy
slowing down.
Private think tank Malaysian Institute of Economic Research has cut its forecast
for the country's economic growth to 4.6% from 5.4% for 2008 because of a
knock-on effect of higher oil prices and slowing global growth.
"We revised our figure down to 4.6% largely because we see a serious slowdown in
our major trading partners," said Mohamed Ariff, executive director of MIER.
"What really compelled us to revise downwards is mostly external developments
and the current political instability in the country," Mohamed said.
Government planners and officials are concerned about the perfect economic
storm. This scenario would see rising prices, recession, lower government
spending, unemployment all hit home at the same time.
"The government cannot afford to be distracted by the Anwar issue. The economic
situation is going to get really challenging and we need to be focused.
"We will need to pump prime and make sure that we cushion the economic slowdown.
The PM knows that his biggest challenge is not Anwar and the sodomy charges but
the economy, '' said a government official.
Malaysia's saving grace is that its fundamentals are sound, foreign exchange
reserves exceeding US$100 billion (RM330 billion), savings high and commodities
such as palm oil and rubber doing well. But a major curveball is the police
probe into the sodomy accusation against Anwar.
A former aide, Saiful Bukhari Azlan, accused Anwar of sodomising him on June 26
at a condominium in Bukit Damansara, Kuala Lumpur. The opposition leader says
that the accusation is politically motivated to prevent him from challenging the
government.
Abdullah knows that public perception is with Anwar, largely due to the manner
similar sodomy charges were investigated in 1998. He cannot afford to have this
case fester like a sore for the next few months. He also cannot afford to have
the police and BN politicians pursue this case like a personal vendetta against
the Opposition. He cannot afford to have Anwar treated like a common criminal.
Anwar has to be charged soon or his accuser must be charged. Any other outcome
will hurt BN the next time it faces the voters.
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So, the thrust of my fears is well-placed.
The economic challenges posed by the external situation and our response together with the rise in the price of petrol and its spillover effects in our internal situation indeed pose grave threats to our economic survival as a nation-state.
Appended, please find my fears expressed in "Press Release: Allegation of Bar Council's involvement is untrue":
"CAN WE AFFORD THE POLITICS OF CONFRONTATION
"Written by Stephen Tan Ban Cheng, 16 July, 2008 at 09:04 pm
"The arrest of Anwar Ibrahim and the warrant of arrest issued against Raja Petra mark a turning point in domestic politics.
We have departed from the politics of accommodation to the politics of confrontation.
"It will do well for partisans to now take a breather and question whether our country can afford this politics of confrontation, although it is admitted that the nature of Malaysian politics is that the winner takes all.
"Externally, just look at the continuing and deepening sub-prime crisis in the United States. What are its implications for our country?
"Internally, just look at the adverse impact of the sudden oil price increase and what it means for the average Malaysian family in terms of their ability to continuing paying instalments on their apartments, cars and even allowances for their school-going children.
"The immediate outlook seems to be dismal because, unless something is done to mitigate the adverse impact, I am expecting a lot of non-performing loans in the next six months involving apartment buyers.
"The cost of our manufactures has also gone up, thus blunting our competitive position in the international market.
"I seem to recall that when Tun Hussein Onn was the Prime Minister and when the steel industry asked for a 10 per cent increase in the price of steel bars, his immediate retort was to ask whether this was an attempt to sabotage our nation and its economic development.
"Today, the price of steel has gone up roughly from its previous RM2,000 a tonne to nearly RM5,000 a tonne, a more than 100 per cent increase.
"My Good Shepherd, what am I to think of this steel price increase when the rural areas have hardly been developed? I am not even talking about the increases in petrol, rice, cooking oil, fish and vegetables. Forget about the increase in the price of photostat paper!"
It is now incumbent on our Government to take all Malaysians into its confidence and tell us the nature of the threats and how these can be overcome.
I understand that measures would be taken soon to soften the spillover effect of the petrol and diesel price increase.
How about our foreign exchange (forex) reserves exceeding US$100 billion (RM330 billion)? What measures are being taken to ensure that its value will be retained and preserved should there be a free fall of the American greenback?
Why is it that some of our Members of Parliament are not posing questions such as these? Are they not the guardians of our national interest?
Stephen Tan Ban Cheng