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by Kamrul Idris

SINCE Mohd Saiful Bukhari Azlan made his sodomy allegations against Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim on June 28, a cottage industry of political opinion and speculation has mushroomed in deja vu of 1998.

History appears to be repeating itself. The story goes that with Anwar poised, then as now, to rise to the top job, sinister forces in the government conspired to lay him low by a most dastardly accusation of sexual deviancy.

Unfortunately, the truth is more prosaic.

A decade ago, a major fight was played out between Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed and his then number two, as the country tumbled into the vortex of the Asian financial crisis.

When Anwar famously appeared in public with a black eye, the perception that he had been victimised by an administration out to get him was reinforced and felt throughout the country.

Although it was subsequently proven that the then inspector-general of police, Tan Sri Rahim Noor, had acted alone, the perception stuck like a rash on the system of justice and governance.

This time, there is no do-or-die contest for power. The Barisan Nasional won the March 8 general election with a comfortable majority, which Anwar hopes to usurp by a stampede of defections too massive to be easily believed.

Despite the tumult following the polls, in which the BN performed badly, it became clearer with each passing day that Anwar could not get the numbers to topple the government.

The Pakatan Rakyat de facto leader's boasts of an imminent takeover have come up empty time and again. Only his promise of a new government in September is left dangling before a weary and increasingly sceptical public.

Every BN component party has strenuously denied any intention of jumping ship, with the exception of the Sabah Progressive Party, a bit player with only two seats in Parliament, whose future in the coalition is being questioned by its own partners in the state.

With the government secure in office, and Anwar safely outside, no advantage whatsoever could have been gained by the BN from a reprise of 1998.

This was, after all, the same government that had allowed Anwar to campaign freely before, during and after the elections, both in and out of the country.

It would have been sheer folly for any of the BN's agents to hatch a conspiracy so reminiscent of one of the darkest chapters in the nation's history.

The BN only had to wait until Sept 16 to prove Anwar wrong, and undermine his standing at least until the next elections five years hence.

Yet Mohd Saiful's allegations posed a dilemma.

The residue of 1998 was so pungent that the police were wary of accepting his report, a possible dereliction of duty that is currently being investigated by Bukit Aman.

It finally had to open investigation papers after Mohd Saiful went through a medical examination.

Anwar's sodomy conviction in 1999 was overturned by the Federal Court six years later in a two-to-one decision. The two judges found the prosecution's case inadequately proved although they were quite sure of his "homosexual activities".

Even without the lack of closure at the end of the most controversial trial in memory, Mohd Saiful's police report would still have had to be investigated.

Like any other citizen, especially one defined by the long list of civil and human rights spelt out by the Pakatan Rakyat, he deserves his due from the police, the courts, government and society at large.

As entertaining as the conspiracy theories may be, the fact remains that a volunteer or aide of Anwar's had lodged a complaint of a crime having been committed against him.

Of course, no guilt can be presumed on the part of Anwar or Mohd Saiful at this point. But that will have to be resolved by due process.

That process has been adhered to with more than the usual strictness by a police force that saw itself as having been badly burned by the black eye incident of 1998.

With the police treading so carefully, Anwar may not even be charged.

In these politically troubled times, the institutions of state have to be trusted to restore the country to calm.

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