The Malaysian Bar - ‘Asean has capacity to paralyse junta’

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‘Asean has capacity to paralyse junta’

Wednesday, 31 October 2007 11:49pm

©The Sun (Used by permission)
by Jacqueline Ann Surin

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 31, 2007): Asean has the capacity to paralyse the military junta in Myanmar if it wanted to because the regime is currently at its most vulnerable, the Alternative Asean Network on Burma (Altsean-Burma) said today.

Bangkok-based Altsean-Burma coordinator Debbie Stothard said instead of passing the buck to China to pressure the junta to initiate reforms, Asean was in a position to use its leverage because of the regime’s economic dependence on some member states.

For example, she said, the junta relied on petrol and diesel from Malaysia and Singapore, and the military was the largest fuel consumer.

"The military also relies on trade with Asean for 51.3% of its foreign exchange revenue. Gas sales to Thailand alone account for 43%," she said. "It also relies on Thailand and Singapore as its biggest sources of new foreign direct investments (FDI), constituting 98.61% over the past two years."

Stothard, a Malaysian, was speaking on "The Role of Asean in the Myanmar Impasse: Conflict, Confrontation or Compromise" at the 14th Malaysian Law Conference.

She said the junta was also dependent on Singapore’s financial services to store and move wealth from Myanmar, and Singapore could impose a temporary freeze on large Myanmar-held bank accounts and other financial assets in Singapore pending a money-laundering review.

"An Asean freeze or even slowdown on economic, material and diplomatic support will shepherd the regime to political dialogue and the achievement of genuine reforms," she said.

Stothard said Indonesia could also take the lead for Asean in the UN Security Council, which begins chairing the body in November, because the Security Council was the body most feared and respected by the regime.

She said the regime was also vulnerable because it was facing financial shortages because of its own mismanagement and massive capital flight; increasing military desertions and disaffection; and the unconditional support of China, India and Russia cannot be assumed because of international public sentiment.

Stothard said that contrary to popular belief, economic sanctions would not hurt the people because they were dependent on the informal sector and on subsistence agriculture, while it was the regime that was more reliant on international markets and financing.

Deputy chairman of the Bar Council’s human rights committee Andrew Khoo said there was no reason why suspension from Asean membership should not be considered for member states which did not comply with their obligations under the Asean Charter, which explicitly recognises the promotion of human rights.

"The Commonwealth, of which Malaysia is a member, has suspended misbehaving nations before," he said.

"(And) if the generals do not care about the reputation and image of Asean, why is Asean willing to ruin its credibility and reputation for Burma?" Khoo added.

Coordinator for the Chin Refugee Committee Paul Lian said Burmese asylum seekers had no choice but to seek relief in neighbouring Asean nations because they had no other option. "Until there are substantive improvements in Burma, our future depends on Asean nations," he said.