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©The Sun (Used by permission)
by Datuk Zaid Ibrahim

It is impossible to project with certainty the political changes Malaysia will undergo in the next 50 years because outcomes of political developments have defied predictions. However, there are constants that will influence our political landscape.

The entrenched Malay political culture, especially dominant in Umno, is one of patronage where in exchange for unquestioned loyalty, the Malays gain economic benefits and protection from their leaders.

However, the strength of the popular votes obtained by PAS in the last three general elections indicate that Malay support for PAS is still strong. This may be a reflection of yearnings amongst the Malays that whilst they value patronage, they also want Islamic values of justice, fairness and accountability.

The approach of the current PAS leadership to governance, focusing less on ideologies, suggests that they are adopting a middle ground for their Islamic constituents.

Whilst PAS may want to shed some of its extreme Islamic image and rhetoric to gain headway into the middle ground of Malay politics, the same may not be true for Umno.

If Umno were to lose support – which appears unlikely in the short term – their likely response may be to be more ethno-centric and to champion the “Islamic agenda”. In the future, it is not inconceivable that PAS may sound more like Umno and Umno like PAS.

Already, we have heard repeated statements from Umno’s upper echelons that Malaysia is an Islamic state. I hope that race and religion, which have destroyed and divided other countries, will spare our nation.

The continued inequitable distribution of resources will cause a possible political backlash.

The economic condition of the East Malaysian states requires careful thought so that the fragile integration we now have will not deteriorate. Though poverty as a whole has been substantially reduced, the disparity within ethnic groups is worrying.

Economic issues will gain importance in the years to come and solutions by periodical handouts will have to be replaced by carefully structured planning and better utilisation of resources.

The Chinese-based parties will, in future, take on a more assertive stance in their political play unlike the spectator and supplementary role they now assume. In exchange for government positions, the parties are more focused on business and community issues. This does not, however, mean they contribute little to nation-building.

However, in the decades to come, the Chinese will be more politically active and assertive. Their strength in education, their ability to accumulate capital and know-how means they will have greater clout and involvement where decision-making is concerned.

Increasing foreign investments from China, Singapore and the influx of capital and investments from the Chinese diaspora will compel them to evolve into a political force of some reckoning.

The Indian community, too, will be more vocal and their politics will be emboldened by the growing strength of the economies of Indians. Even the government has singled out the Indians as a target for more support in terms of increasing their equity in corporations. The emergence of India as an economic powerhouse, and their investments in this country, will have a significant trickle-down effect to the Indian community here. So, we will see a more vigorous political stance from Malaysian Indians.

The real test of the maturity and resilience of Malaysia’s ethnic political parties will be known during that time.

Being such a dominant partner, Umno will need to adjust to and accommodate the growing assertiveness of the non-Malay political parties.

The younger generation’s lack of interest in politics will change as more will register to vote. With the increasing reliance on the Internet for news and information, this generation of voters will be better informed and their participation in non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and political organisations will bring to the fore socio-economic issues that at present lie dormant. Women will also play a more dominant part in political organisations and NGOs.

The end result will be, the public will demand greater accountability. Consequently, a more vibrant civil society will emerge to monitor government.

So, Malaysian political norms will change albeit at a slower pace than one would like to see.

The prevailing political order will not be replaced easily but the nascent coalition of forces seeking changes to race-based politics will strengthen.

Cynics will assert that Malaysians will continue to choose “more of the same” but reforms in the institutions of government are inevitable. Market place demands, the dictates of the changing world political and economic order, and the need to be efficient and productive makes it necessary for the country to be more democratic and not less, and more reliant on transparent systems and less on discretion.

The Barisan Nasional government is mindful and fully cognisant of these matters. Hence, it has to implement these changes or face the wrath of voters.

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